An area of low pressure is gaining organization in the central Bay of Bengal, and will bring heavy rain to northern Myanmar late this weekend into early next week.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the low pressure system, called Invest 92B, has a "medium" chance of tropical cyclone development this weekend with chances growing into Sunday.
Steering winds will take this low toward the northeast and toward Myanmar over the next few days, with landfall anticipated mid- to late Sunday, eastern time.
Heavy rainfall appears to be the biggest threat especially on Sunday and Monday, eastern time. This area in the northern Bay of Bengal from eastern India eastward to Myanmar is notorious for flash flooding and storm surge flooding due to a combination of mountainous terrain and low-lying marshlands.
As the system moves northeastward, it is expected to intensify. Very warm ocean temperatures and favorable conditions aloft should allow for steady strengthening. It is possible that Invest 92B could become a minimal hurricane prior to landfall along the northern coast of Myanmar, likely in the state of Rakhine.